Saturday, August 20, 2011

Google's Gain (Motorola) May Actually be Microsoft's

Surely Google's acquisition of Motorola Mobility was unexpected and stunning. And the patents clearly seem to be a very valuable asset for them. But what about Motorola's phone biz? What is the implication of that?

Though Google says it is not entering the phone business, its customers must be very concerned that they are now disadvantaged - if not in obvious ways, at least likely in subtle ways, like access to OS updates. They now must at least consider that Android is not their (literal) free ride anymore.

So what are the alternatives? WebOS is effectively dead. A new OS without an established app store is also a very long shot. Microsoft on the other hand, has a pretty decent phone OS (Windows 7), and quite possibly a decent tablet and PC OS next year in Windows 8. If Microsoft revisits their business model, and looks to be more ubiquitous and accommodating to customers/ less onerous in business terms, they have a pretty decent shot of picking up a large chunk of mobile OS share. And having a seamless OS between phone, tablet, and PC as they promise is a very compelling value proposition. How ironic would it be if Microsoft went from hated in the 90's, too somewhat irrelevant in the 2000's, to the safe haven of the 2010's!

Its also an interesting evaluation of business models. Microsoft made money by selling operating systems and apps. Then Google came along and offered everything for free, because they wanted eye balls to view ads, where they made a killing. Now they own Motorola Mobility. I would not expect Motorola to be anywhere near as dominant a player as Apple is with the iPhone. So is it worth it to get in the hardware business at the expense of losing so many eyeballs? Stick to your knitting, Google, as Tom Peters and Robert Waterman would say in the classic "In Search of Excellence". They know search, they don't know Industrial Design or User Experience like Apple, and they never will.

Sell the Motorola phone business as fast as you can, Google. Before Microsoft rises from the ashes and becomes the phone agnostic OS with a great search engine.